International travel won't be back to normal for Australia until 2024

Deloitte Access Economics report  has warned that international travel for Australians is likely to remain restrictive until 2024. 

Deloitte Access Economics’ latest quarterly business outlook predicts international travel won’t fully return until 2024, as international borders open slowly until then.

For Australia, Deloitte economist Chris Richardson anticipates there will be some sort of quarantine remaining for incoming travellers for some time.

Deloitte’s quarterly forecast was prepared prior to Australia’s national vaccine rollout hitting a setback last week, which could further dampen expectations about the return of overseas travel.

Late last week health authorities recommended the AstraZeneca vaccine should only be given to people above 50 due to the risk of blood clotting and take the Pfizer vaccine instead.

There are now concerns Australia will not reach its October 31 target to complete the national rollout, potentially putting in limbo airlines’ plans to resume overseas flights on that date.

Deloitte also said quarantine for arrivals would likely remain in some form for years, as efforts continue to stop the virus being imported back into the country.

Deloitte economist Chris Richardson said that would have a bearing on overseas travel getting back to what it was pre-COVID.

“That keeps international travel – both inbound and outbound – pretty weak in 2022, and it may not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024,” he said, according to 7 News.

Earlier this year, Department of Health Secretary Dr Brendan Murphy said he was hopeful international travel would be on the cards again from 2022, after vaccine programs were completed in Australia in October 2021 and rolled out extensively around the world.

Australian  Prime Minister Scott Morrison walked away from that  target this week, following the release of medical advice recommending people under the age of 50 receive the Pfizer vaccine, rather than AstraZeneca's shot, because of concerns about rare blood clots.

Federal Labor has criticised the government for not setting new vaccination targets, arguing businesses and the public needed more certainty. 

However Qantas says it has made no changes "at this stage" to its timetable for restarting international flights, as delays to Australia's COVID-19 vaccination program threaten to push back its plans. 

International Air Transport Association (IATA),  an international travel body also  has made the grim prediction that overseas travel will not return to pre-pandemic levels for at least another four years.

Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) says the recovery in air traffic had been slower than expected around the world.

According to the IATA, renewed coronavirus outbreaks in the US and China, as well as other developing economies, have resulted in the grim prospect for international travel as those countries make up about 40 per cent of global air travel markets.

According to data company Statista, global business tourism spending hit a whopping $1,781 billion in 2019.

Big businesses tightening the belt on corporate travel budgets, the IATA said international business travel would be constrained as companies face financial pressure from the coronavirus.

The IATA said there had also been less of a need for business travel with video conferencing becoming efficient enough to act as a substitute for meetings in person